A recent analysis by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) shows that, although neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor former President Donald Trump have a solid plan to shore up Social Security — which is expected to be insolvent by 2034 — Trump’s policies in particular would cause the program so many older Americans rely on as their main source of income to run out of funds within six years.
“Trump’s proposals to eliminate taxation of Social Security benefits, end taxes on tips and overtime, impose tariffs, and expand deportations would all widen Social Security’s cash deficits,” U.S. Budget Watch, a project of the CRFB, reported this week.
The analysis showed that Trump’s policies would, according to the U.S. Budget Watch report: “increase Social Security’s 10-year cash shortfall by $2.3 trillion through 2035” and require either far more cuts to benefits (a 33% cut versus the 23% cut needed without Trump’s policies) or a 50% increase in Social Security revenues.
The group stated that Trump’s proposals to end taxation of Social Security benefits, end all taxes on overtime pay and tips, set tariffs on imported goods — “which would either increase cost-of-living adjustments through higher inflation or reduce taxable payroll” — and deport millions of immigrants who pay into Social Security would “weaken Social Security’s finances.”
The group noted that, while Trump has claimed he can save Social Security by “drilling for oil and natural gas and growing the economy,” the analysis showed that “increased energy exploration is unlikely to have a meaningful effect on Social Security – even if the gains were deposited into the trust fund … (and) that it would require unrealistically fast economic growth to close Social Security’s existing long-term funding gap.”